MyDD :: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days

Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days

by Cheebs, Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:36:26 PM EST

Everyone knows Obama will win the pledged delegate totals but Clinton folk like to tell you that the supers might go to her and negate the pledged delegate totals. Let's see how possible that might be

Obama's site lists he needs 132.5 delegates to hit 2026. Let's just see how many supers he would need:

I am using Slate.com's delegate calculator and giving VERY conservative estimates for the final states. (Obama winning by 10 Oregon, Montana, and SD and Clinton winning by 30 in PR and Kentucky). He would net 83 pledged delegates.

He would need only 49.5 supers. Since there is no .5's left that would mean he would need 50 supers to be safe.

He is averaging about 5 super delegates a day. Meaning....

Obama will based on my math cross the threshold of super delegates needed in only 10 days

Tags: Obama, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 37 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

It's been over at various "unofficial" levels for some time now, but I don't expect the official hammer to drop until after Puerto Rico.

Until then, both should treat each other with kid gloves so as to keep from pissing off the other's supporters.

Let's get unified!

by Reeves on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:43:43 PM EST

The number is 2210. Won't be reached til August (none / 0)

because the vote promosed is not the vote cast and a majority is half plus one of the delegates qualified to vote.

The qualifying process has not yet been completed, so Obama does not even know what a majority will be. The maximum is 2210. If FL and MI are denied some whole or half delegates, the number goes down but it never goes down to 2025!

According to the actual rules of order the nominee is named when the vote is cast and counted to reach the magic number OR until there is only one candidate in the race. Any attempt to crown one's self before then is presumptious and arrogant way beyond anything democratic or following the rules.

Haven't we had enough of that kind of President?

by itsadryheat on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

Not counting add-ons, which are determined by prior election results, since Hillary's "devastating" win in West Virginia, the net superdelegate gain has been 35 for Obama, zero for Clinton.

Yes. Zero.

by Joe Beese on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:46:40 PM EST

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (none / 0)

Sorry, I meant Indiana.

by Joe Beese on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:47:13 PM EST

I wouldn't be surprised... (2.00 / 1)

They may arrange it so that the pledged delegates he gets on 5/20 put him over the top. If we see 10 or more per day starting today, then that's what's going to happen.

If not, the supers will dry up until South Dakota will put him over the top, I expect.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:48:33 PM EST

That would be good (none / 0)

I rather see Obama reaching the magic number in an election night than by superdelegates. I was hoping for Oregon but that will be difficult. Even if Clinton gets her way and the delegates from MI/FLA are seated, the probably will be seated with half a vote, and Obama then stands a strong chance to reach the new number with the MT/SD elections.

by Fairy Tale on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:53:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.00 / 0)

Wow. You've just stated that Obama has won the battle, before its even ended. But what about the war; i.e. the presidency. I see no indication Obama will win the war. (Metaphors, btw.) So good for you, with your premature ejac-predictions. Tell me how he wins November.

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:58:08 PM EST

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 2)

McCain is a cake walk compared to Hillary.

by Cheebs on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.25 / 4)

The cakewalk is kicking Obama's ass in the EC.

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.66 / 6)

Yeah, my favorite republican, Denny.

You would hope that its a cakewalk for McCain since you support him outright.

http://777denny.wordpress.com/
http://777denny.wordpress.com/
http://777denny.wordpress.com/

I hope they never ban you, what an embaressment you are to Jerome who could never ban a republican troll.

When will we stop ignoring him?

Every dollar you donate to Democrats is used to fight people like Denny.

Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.40 / 5)

Hahaha! Why don't you rec this diary? Oh, that's right; you can't. Hahaha! :)

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:06:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.75 / 4)

Again, if you are a republican, why are you on this site?

Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (none / 0)

MyDD: Where Republican trolls keep their privileges while Obama supporters lose theirs. Gotta love it.

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (none / 0)

When Tom Delay and Newt Gingrich are tearing their hair out and begging their party to change course to have any chance of holding on to the Presidency, and all indicators favour Dems, you see no indication that Obama will win? You are looking in the wrong places.

by interestedbystander on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:08:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 2)

"I see no indication Obama will win the war."

Here ya go:

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Gallup Tracking 05/09 - 05/13 4381 RV 46 45 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/11 - 05/14 1600 LV 46 45 Obama +1.0
Quinnipiac 05/08 - 05/12 1475 RV 47 40 Obama +7.0
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 - 05/11 1122 A 51 44 Obama +7.0
POS/GQR 05/07 - 05/08 800 LV 48 43 Obama +5.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 05/01 - 05/08 1986 RV 46 40 Obama +6.0

"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton

by fugazi on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.00 / 0)

Yup. And the polls said Gore would be president. The polls even said Kerry would be president. We now know that polls don't elect presidents. The EC does. That's the poll that matters.

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.66 / 3)

Why do you love the Republican party so much?

http://777denny.wordpress.com/
http://777denny.wordpress.com/
http://777denny.wordpress.com/

Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

Actually, Gore won. But in any case, to assert that there is "no evidence that Obama will win the war" is simply incorrect. There's plenty of evidence. That said, November is a long way off. So we can't be complacent.

"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton

by fugazi on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the three special elections are any indication (none / 0)

We are on the verge of the most crushing defeat of a political party in our lifetimes. It is not hyperbole to say that the Republican party as we know it today will cease to exist after the GE.

"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"

by xenontab on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

It's been over since February. Since then all that's happened has been for events to prove that we math people have been correct all along.

Government derives its power from those that it governs.

by lockewasright on Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:59:01 PM EST

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

Saw a comment a few posts up about McCain winning in the Electoral College over Obama.

You probably don't remember that Kerry was beating Bush in Florida and Ohio around this time in 2004. The final results were....different, to say the least.

by Reeves on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:07:35 PM EST

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.00 / 0)

Well, we saw how well that did Kerry. Look, Hillary wins the EC map. Barack loses. I don't see a successful Barack win. Then, where does that put the Dems? Well, I do see Dems picking up more seats in Congress. So if in fact Barack is the nominee, and if in fact he doesn't get the presidency, at least Congress will make McCain impotent.

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:13:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 2)

I repeat, electoral map predictions in May are not accurate about November results.

by Reeves on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (1.00 / 0)

They're more indicative of anything else available today.

Sen. Obama: I'm watching. I'm listening. I vote.

by ChitownDenny on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:22:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (2.00 / 1)

No, they're not. Not even close.

by Reeves on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

without Clinton supporters on board, he has nothing. Each day that goes by, Obama pisses off more and more Clinton supporters. Obama's behavior toward HRC is foolish, IMO.

by soyousay on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:42:18 PM EST

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

What makes you think they are not on board?

You think Clinton supporters are so stupid they would let John McCain destroy our country.

You have quickly offended all Clinton supporters' intelligence.

Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

It's very simple; WV tells the story. WV IS Clinton country and they're not on board. Polls show many will support McCain if Clinton isn't the nominee.

John McCain is considered a moderate Republican, he'll appeal to many Reagan Democrats.

I think you're naive, to say the least. You must live a sheltered lifestyle.

by soyousay on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:00:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

Im sorry you think so poorly of America and it's citizens.

We are going to crush John McCain.

If the people of WV want more more war, more death, more blood, less rights over privacy and our bodies, less money in our pockets, less education etc than they are republicans and shouldnt vote for hillary or obama in any election.

Than that is their problem, I can't make them vote for their own interests.

Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

Thinking poorly of you isn't thinking poorly of America - your McCarthyite bs on accusing everyone of being Republicans is absurd.

by msharp on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

Yeah, yeah, yeah, so you keep saying. Please try finiding a new threat as this one is getting quite old.

"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton

by venician on Thu May 15, 2008 at 04:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama may become the nominee but... (none / 0)

that in response to so you say.

"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton

by venician on Thu May 15, 2008 at 04:40:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Will Be The Nominee 100% In Ten Days (none / 0)

But what happens when the rules committee meets and declares that MI/FL will count? Then the new number will be 2210.

Then the nomination will be taken from him.

by nikkid on Thu May 15, 2008 at 09:44:31 PM EST

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